The Far-Right’s Surge: What It Means for European Politics
Introduction
2024 is shaping up to be a historic year for global democracy, with significant elections taking place across approximately 70 countries. Among them, the European Union (EU) elections stand out due to their potential to reshape the continent’s political landscape. With 373 million Europeans set to vote this week for 720 members of the European Parliament (EP), the results could signal a major shift to the right, profoundly influencing EU policies for the next five years.
The Upcoming EU Elections: A Pivotal Moment
Historic Scale and Voter Engagement
The upcoming European Parliament elections are among the largest in terms of voter participation, overshadowed only by India’s extensive electoral process. With a diverse electorate spanning 27 member nations, the scale of these elections reflects the EU’s significant role in global politics.
Anticipated Shift to the Right
Predictions suggest a notable rightward shift in the European Parliament. This change could have substantial implications for the EU’s ability to address various crises, from the ongoing war in Ukraine to climate change and mass migration. The shift will likely alter the EU’s internal dynamics and its external influence.
The Evolution of EU Political Dynamics
From Center-Left Dominance to Center-Right
Historically, the European Parliament has seen a gradual shift from a center-left to a center-right dominance. In 1994, the Socialist group (S&D) led the Parliament. By 1999, the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) had overtaken S&D and has since been the dominant force.
The Role of MEPs and Political Groupings
MEPs represent various domestic political parties, forming multinational groupings based on shared interests. The political center’s gradual shift rightwards is evident in these coalitions, with the EPP leading mainstream centrists. However, domestic political pressures often influence MEPs’ stances and actions in the Parliament.
The Rise of the Far-Right: ECR and ID
European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)
The ECR, founded by former British Prime Minister David Cameron, has gained prominence. Under the leadership of Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, known for her anti-globalist and anti-immigration stances, the ECR has become a significant player. Despite Meloni’s more moderate stance on some EU initiatives, her leadership continues to shape the ECR’s influence.
Identity and Democracy (ID)
The far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which recently expelled the German AfD party, also plays a crucial role. Despite attempts to moderate its image, ID’s extreme elements could challenge mainstream EU policies, particularly on contentious issues like migration and border security.
Implications for the European Parliament and Beyond
Influence on Policy and Governance
The anticipated influx of far-right lawmakers will complicate coalition-building and policy-making within the EU. While direct cooperation with ID is unlikely, their influence could still pressure the EPP and shift policy discussions, particularly on migration, climate change, and border security.
Potential Shifts in National Politics
Domestic political shifts in member states, such as Marine Le Pen’s potential success in France and Geert Wilders’ anticipated rise in the Netherlands, could further push EU politics to the right. This domestic influence will likely impact Brussels’ decision-making processes and policy outcomes.
Conclusion
As the European Parliament prepares for a significant rightward shift, the implications for both European and global politics are profound. With the EU increasingly positioned as a geopolitical player, the evolving political center could lead to notable changes in its external relations and internal governance. The next five years could redefine the EU’s role on the world stage, with far-reaching consequences for its member states and beyond.